Wednesday, February 11, 2004

Richardson for VP

John Kerry should pick a Latino for VP, and Bill Richardson is a fantastic choice.

Why a Latino? In the key swing states, the large Latino voting blocks could be decisive. Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and New Mexico (where Richardson is governor) could all be critical swing states. In addition, a Richardson candidacy could yield much higher than normal turnout among Latino and African-American voters.

It's well known that if African-Americans voted as heavily as Jews, the Democrats would hold not only the White House but several Congressional seats as well. However, that community feels disenfranchised by most establishment Democrats, and tends to turn out only for "one of their own." This feeling is fairly justified by a generation of taking black votes for granted, although it can obviously be argued that not voting hurts African-American interests. Whatever the justification, it is a real phenomenon.

At the same time, an African-American VP candidate could alienate many voters such as Dean's much-maligned "pickup-truck drivers with confederate flags." This, of course, is awful and reprehensible, but it, too, is a demographic reality. Moreover, there are only a handful of moderate African-American politicians on the scene with the resume needed for a strong VP canditate. Most prominent black Democrats tend to be more left-wing, and still more are perceived to be more left than they actually are.

Studies show that Latinos are perceived by both whites and blacks to be either "in between" or "one of us." So, in addition to the Latino vote itself, a Latino VP candidate could galvanize blacks without alienating swing-voter whites.

Bill Richardson is an ideal choice -- even apart from the Latino piece. He has served in Washington before (as Energy Secretary), so he has both that resume item and the experience of having been through the right-wing scandal grist mill. Presumably there are no skeletons in his closet, or we would've learned of them already. At the same time, he is a governor, and has domestic experience that Kerry lacks. He is both a Washington insider and a Washington outsider. The record in New Mexico has been good, although of course not perfect. His politics are relatively moderate, except in the environmental area, where they are to the left. But then again, most of America's environmental politics are to the left of their general politics, and Richardson could stack up very well against oil-man Cheney. Finally, although New Mexico is not "the South", it is also not the Northeast. In addition to his home state, Richardson's geographical roots could play well everywhere that is suspicious of another Massachusetts liberal. Particularly as the rust belt and states like Virginia and Tennessee could be swing states, that is all very important.

Richardson has the presidential look, the demeanor, and the ability to rally a crowd. He is politically, ethnically, and geographically the right guy for this nomination.

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